Afghanistan is a country affected by extreme natural phenomena, such as earthquakes, landslides, floods and droughts, which have caused losses of life and livelihood. According to the World Bank, these extreme events mainly occurred in the early 21st century, have shown the extreme vulnerability of Afghan communities to the impacts of environmental degradation. This vulnerability has been amplified by the conditions of conflict, poverty, malnutrition and inequality that have afflicted and continue to afflict the population. According to the report ‘Climate risk country profile. Afghanistan” by the World Bank, the country is the fifth most vulnerable nation in the world to the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation due to a combination of political, geographical and social factors.
Climate crisis and hydrogeological risks in Afghanistan
Afghanistan has an arid continental climate with temperatures varying considerably depending on altitude: mountainous regions experience temperatures below 0°C, while southern regions experience temperatures above 35°C. Afghan weather conditions have a complex intra-annual interaction with large-scale climatic phenomena, in particular, the El Niño weather event and the Indian Ocean dipole, leading to droughts in many areas of the country.
The territory is extremely vulnerable to hydrogeological phenomena, which are increasing in frequency due to the effects of climate change. In the period between 1970-2016 globally there has been an increase in the occurrence of natural disasters and this trend is also confirmed in Afghanistan by the report “Managing Natural Disasters in Afghanistan. Risks, Vulnerabilities and general guidelines” by SESRIC. According to the report, while natural disasters in Afghanistan accounted for 0.7% globally, in 2016 the estimate rose to 1.6%. The country is experiencing more and more natural disasters on its territory.
Between 1970 and 2016, Afghanistan was mainly affected by floods (46% of cases), earthquakes (18%) and landslides (12%). While it is true that many administrative regions face multiple risks, the increasing drought in the country is a cause for concern.
Floods in Afghanistan
Floods are the most frequent natural disaster in Afghanistan, with the administrative provinces located in the western and central parts of the country being extremely vulnerable to this type of natural hazard. Particularly at risk are the areas of Hirat, Ghor, Faryab, Jawzjan, Daykundi, Balkh, Samangan, Kunduz, Badakhshan and Uruzgan. River floods occur mainly as a result of heavy rainfall and are reinforced by the rapid melting of snow and glaciers in the mountains. On 25 April and 6 June 2015, floods hit the Guzargah-e-Nur district of Baghlan province: thousands of people fled, more than 100 residents lost their lives, 4 villages were destroyed dragging more than 2,000 houses with them, and several agricultural fields and thousands of livestock were irretrievably lost.
Earthquakes and landslides in Afghanistan
Afghanistan is located in an area of high seismic activity and the country is vulnerable to medium to large intensity earthquakes, as it lies along the Indo-Eurasian tectonic boundary. The areas of Samangan, Baghlan, Takhar and Badakhshan are particularly at risk. Earthquakes in the last 20 years have killed about 8,000 people and it is estimated that a major seismic event in the Kabul province could cause about 8,500 deaths and over 500 million dollars in damage.
Due to its rugged and mountainous nature and the location of villages, towns and cities, Afghanistan is a country highly vulnerable to landslides. In this case, the areas of Logar, Baghlan, Samangan, Balkh, Kunduz, Takhar, Badakhshan) are particularly at risk. On 2 May 2014, a series of heavy rains caused multiple landslides in the Nowabad area of Aab-e-Barik village in Badakhshan, causing significant loss of life and widespread damage to homes and agriculture.
Droughts in Afghanistan
According to the World Bank Report, Afghanistan is affected by drought because of two deficits: 1) deficit in rainfall; 2) deficit in surface and groundwater flow. These two deficits are combined with inadequate land and crop management, thus impoverishing agricultural production. Research conducted by Iqbal et Al. on the situation of farming families in Herat province indicates the many negative economic, social and environmental impacts of drought. The study shows how it has reduced the availability of work for unskilled workers, impacting their standard of living and financial situation. This leads on the one hand to conflicts over hoarding resources and on the other to increased migration.
Afghanistan’s ecosystems are severely degraded due to decades of deforestation and drought, which can also be attributed to factors such as population growth, mismanagement and overexploitation of resources, local conflicts and unreliable land tenure. Ecosystem degradation, in turn, transforms flora compositions, degrades soil nutrients and reduces water availability. Today, most of Afghanistan’s soils are already degraded and 75% of the country is already affected by desertification, while forest cover has been reduced by up to 80%, from more than 3 million hectares in the 1950s to 1 million hectares today.
Unless concrete actions are taken to combat climate change, the situation is bound to get worse. The study by Nauman et Al. shows that droughts in Afghanistan could double, if not triple, by 2050 due to a decrease in rainfall. This phenomenon is already taking place because of reduced spring rainfall and increased evaporation rates in the north-western, central and north-eastern regions. In the northeast, global warming is affecting the river system that historically supplied Afghanistan’s water supply during long periods of drought. The study by Naumann et. Al. predicted that the ongoing reduction in the region’s glacial mass will lead to a drastic reduction in water supplies by 2050, affecting livelihoods. Currently, the areas, particularly at risk, are Zabul, Kandahar, Hilmand, Nimroz, Farah, Hirat, Badghis, Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, Sar-e-pul, Bamyan, Daykundi, Uruzgan, Ghor.
Susceptibility to environmental degradation and social vulnerabilities of the Afghan population
Since 1970, Afghanistan has had to cope with economic and non-economic losses due to natural disasters and environmental degradation. A country’s susceptibility to such phenomena is measured by population density, dependence on agriculture, the quality of public infrastructure, the spatial distribution of population and economic assets, and the quality of urban planning.
Afghanistan’s communities are ethnically and culturally diverse and generally less urbanised. As a result of the long conflict and political turmoil, the Afghan population is among the poorest in the world, with the national poverty rate exceeding 50% in 2017. The country has a high unemployment rate and is heavily dependent on the agricultural sector.
According to the World Bank, the agricultural sector employs 44.4% of the total population and 52.6% of the rural population. Due to the economic structure of the country, people are more exposed to losses and damages caused by the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation. The data on the agricultural sector would seem to reflect the housing pattern: a large part of the population lives in rural areas and the urbanisation rate is 24%.
Despite the size of its agricultural sector, Afghanistan remains a net importer of food, making the country highly vulnerable to international price shocks. In recent years, annual cereal imports have been equivalent to 29% of annual domestic cereal production. At the same time, the population is heavily dependent on wheat for its food consumption: this product provides up to two-thirds of the daily caloric intake of an average person.
As we can see, environmental hazards pose a regular threat to local production and farming communities. Afghanistan was constantly affected by drought throughout the period 1997-2007, causing a 50% drastic reduction in livestock. Basic crops have also been affected by drought. For example, wheat is very susceptible to water shortages and yields were reduced by up to 50% during the 2017-2018 droughts.
These climatic conditions have favoured adaptation strategies on the part of farmers, who have turned to seeds that are more resistant to extreme weather conditions. Because of its resistance to high temperatures, opium poppy cultivation is related to drought conditions and has seen a resurgence in cultivation in the early 21st century. The plant can tolerate even periods of extreme drought and does not need to increase the frequency of irrigation throughout the year. These factors have made the opium market a safer alternative for farmers, not without its contradictions.
According to the UNEP Vulnerability and Adaptation report, climate change will increase health care pressure in Afghanistan. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns may increase the incidence of bacterial diseases such as cholera and typhoid fever, as well as vector-borne diseases such as malaria and leishmaniasis. Overall, climate change will increase the prevalence of infectious diseases in an already strained health system due to armed clashes and malnutrition. Today, only half of the population is less than an hour’s travel away from a health facility, while, in general, the health service often suffers from a lack of expertise and limited supplies.
High levels of poverty, lack of livelihoods and income-generating opportunities, chronic health problems, poor infrastructure and very limited knowledge of likely hazards and risks contribute to the vulnerability of the Afghan people to environmental degradation.
Poverty and environmental degradation have a mutually reinforcing relationship: the economic situation of households affected by environmental degradation has worsened due to loss of income sources or damage to houses.
Households find it difficult to respond to the impact of environmental degradation and tend to have fewer opportunities to access facilities and services provided by the government. This leads to a vicious circle: poor families who suffer environmental degradation become even poorer, becoming less able to respond or find a solution to the degradation that has exacerbated their poverty.
From environmental degradation to the rise of the Taliban
According to the World Bank report, over the past 20 years the absence of the rule of law, weak government in its public functions, rampant corruption, high rates of violence, ineffective regulation and distrust of parties have made it difficult to respond in the short term to the negative effects of environmental degradation. This has been exacerbated by the tendency to take action mainly in emergencies. As a result, society fell apart as it proved unable to redistribute resources to those in need.
Access to food and shelter are key determinants of people’s survival in emergencies. While shelters are necessary for safety, physical protection and protection from diseases, food assistance is needed when environmental degradation has a major impact on food stocks or crops or when people are unable to draw on their savings or food reserves.
According to the SESRIC report, Afghanistan ranks fifth in the world in terms of lack of capacity to adapt to long-term environmental degradation. This is due to the lack of capacity to respond to the emergency in the short term. As a result, there is a general mistrust of the official government and foreign forces.
This adds up to the way the democratisation process has been carried out. If we refer to the figures of the “democratisation process” we can see that military expenditure amounted to $2 trillion while only $792 million was allocated to civilian development cooperation projects for building schools, roads, hospitals and training and remunerating local personnel. In addition, most of the Western military presence was concentrated in the cities, with little penetration into the villages and almost no contact with the most isolated ones. As a result, the Afghan population felt that the government in Kabul was distant and never looked favourably on Western forces.
All this has left the Taliban relatively ‘undisturbed’. Over the years, they have exploited this opportunity to reorganise themselves, camouflage themselves among the population and feed the population’s hatred towards the Western contingents, who are now perceived as real occupiers.
As in the case of Boko Haram, Climate Change in Afghanistan can also be said to have helped strengthen the position of the Taliban. The country’s rural areas have been shaken by a cycle of floods and droughts that have destroyed crops and increased the challenges the population faces to survive.
As we have seen, a large part of the Afghan population depends on agriculture and many of the conflicts are related to access to natural resources, which are becoming scarcer due to environmental degradation. Again, increased poverty has been followed by increased anger towards perceived occupying forces and increased support for Taliban guerrillas, who have largely exploited the situation to their advantage.
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Sources and background
OIC – SESRIC, Managing Natural Disasters in Afghanistan. Risks, Vulnerabilities and general guidelines, 2018, disponibile su https://www.sesric.org/files/article/575.pdf
World Bank Group, Asian Development Bank, Climate risk country profile. Afghanistan, Washington, 2020, disponibile su https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/660566/climate-risk-country-profile-afghanistan.pdf
UNEP, Afghanistan Vulnerability and Adaptation Technical Assessment Report, 2021, disponibile su https://postconflict.unep.ch/Afghanistan/V%26A_English.pdf
M.W. Iqbal, S. Donjadee, B. Kwanyuen, S.Y. Liu, Farmer’s perception of and adaptation to drought in Herat Province, Afghanistan, in Journal of Mountain Science, n. 15(8), 2018, disponibile su https://link-springer-com.ezproxy.uniroma1.it/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11629-017-4750-z.pdf
G. Naumann, L. Alfieri, K. Wyser, L. Mentaschi, A.R. Betts, H. Carrao, L. Feyen, Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming, in Geophysical Research Letters, n. 45(7), pp. 3285-3296, disponibile su https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017GL076521
Afghanistan su Global Geografia: https://www.globalgeografia.com/asia/afghanistan.htm
- Rainer Maria Barattihttps://migrazioniontheroad.largemovements.it/en/author/admin/
- Rainer Maria Barattihttps://migrazioniontheroad.largemovements.it/en/author/admin/
- Rainer Maria Barattihttps://migrazioniontheroad.largemovements.it/en/author/admin/
- Rainer Maria Barattihttps://migrazioniontheroad.largemovements.it/en/author/admin/